2025 Fire Season Outlook and U.S. Wildfire Trends
As wildfire activity surges across the country, fire departments are preparing for what is expected to be a volatile wildland fire season lasting until July 2025. The National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC) reports significantly increased fire potential in several U.S. regions driven by drought expansion and above-average temperatures.
Escalating Fire Activity
Wildfire response teams across the U.S. are already facing elevated operational demand. In March 2025 alone, wildfire incidents surged by 170% compared to the 10-year average, with burned acreage reaching 121% of typical levels. This sharp increase has pushed the National Fire Preparedness Level to Preparedness Level (PL) 2, while the Southern United States has escalated to PL 4, one step below the maximum.
For fire departments and agencies, this means increased deployments, readiness of wildland engines, and heightened coordination for interagency support.
Drought, Temperature, and Precipitation Anomalies
Weather remains a key driver of fire activity. Currently, drought affects nearly 45% of the U.S., with severe drought conditions reported in far West Texas and expanding extreme drought zones in southern California and New Mexico. March saw above-average temperatures in the Northwest and most areas of the East Coast. Although southern California experienced heavy rainfall in March, the overall precipitation since October is still significantly below average, which keeps surface fuels dry and prone to ignition. In Deep South Texas, localized flooding occurred, yet the state continues to face challenges with drought and dry fuel conditions.
Wildfire Risk by Region
Southwest and Southern Plains
April projections indicate above-normal fire potential for southeast Arizona, southern and eastern New Mexico, and western Texas. Windy, dry, and hot conditions and low snowpack are heightening fireline activity in these regions. Fire departments should anticipate extended operations and ensure that brush trucks and tenders are deployment-ready.
Southeast and Gulf States
Florida, the Southeast Atlantic coast, and parts of Georgia and the Carolinas continue to experience elevated wildfire potential, particularly in pine-dominated areas. Green-up will provide some relief by June, but timber litter fuels remain a threat.
California
Southern California faces an above-normal fire potential in June and July, driven by cumulative drought effects despite a wet March. In Northern California, fire risk is currently normal but is forecasted to rise as the region dries out.
Northwest and Northern Rockies
The Northwest enters the season with normal fire potential, although rangeland fuels east of the Cascades are drying quickly. The Northern Rockies will experience escalating risk by July, particularly in Montana and southeast North Dakota.
Alaska
Due to below-average snowpack, southern Alaska enters fire season with above-normal fire potential, particularly in areas like Bristol Bay and the Kenai Peninsula. Fire response units must consider the rapid ignition risk from human-caused starts in dry surface fuels.
Climate Forecasts and Long-Term Outlook
From May to July, forecasts indicate warmer and drier conditions across northern West and the West Coast. The Climate Prediction Center notes a 62% chance that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist throughout the summer. The negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is expected to further amplify weather patterns conducive to fires. Relief may arrive in the Southwest by July, as the North American Monsoon provides moisture—though timing and intensity remain uncertain.
At BME Fire, we’re dedicated to supporting wildland firefighting operations with rugged, NFPA-compliant fire trucks designed for the front lines. As conditions evolve, we’re monitoring the latest fire potential forecasts to keep our partners informed and equipped.
Get in Touch
Fields marked with an asterisk (*) are required.
